Nuffield Foundation Rapid Response Research Grant: UK Impacts of the US-Iran Conflict

Rapid response funding to support research aiming to understand the economic and social impacts on the UK of the 2026 conflict involving US, Iran, Israel and the wider region, and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with the overall goal of informing policy-based responses.

The Nuffield Foundation has launched a rapid response funding call to support research aiming to understand the economic and social impacts on the UK of the 2026 conflict involving US, Iran, Israel and the wider region, and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

This fund seeks to enable rapid research and analysis capable of capturing emerging dynamics – eg fuel prices, volatility in energy markets, contribution to inflationary pressures, the response of households, businesses and policymakers to the evolving situation – alongside identifying practical measures to minimise the impacts on people’s lives.

The focus for support is on generating timely, rigorous evidence to understand both the economic and social consequences of the crisis on the UK, enable consideration of trade-offs – including over time – and support the design of effective, feasible, and proportionate national and local policy responses, applying lessons from previous shocks where possible. Particular emphasis is placed on distributional effects across households, businesses, and the wider economy, as well as on strengthening system and societal resilience in uncertain times.

Project types could include:

• Rapid-response empirical and applied research, including synthesis and qualitative approaches.
• Real-time data collection and analysis.
• Policy analysis, evaluation, and scenario modelling.
• Distributional and behavioural analysis.

Projects must address one or more of the priority research areas:

• Rising Costs, Potential Shortages and Targeting Support:
  • How can support be targeted effectively at households most vulnerable to rising energy and fuel costs, given data and administrative constraints?
  • Are there groups who may be particularly impacted who risk being overlooked by existing systems of support and, if so, how might policy respond? Is support varying by place and, if so, how?
  • If sharp relative price rises or supply shortages reduce households’ access to essential goods and services, what impacts would that have and how could they be mitigated?
  • Does the compound pressures of this shock on top of others over recent years necessitate urgent action for particularly vulnerable households?
  • What robust, impartial and insightful data is available, or could feasibly be developed, to track price changes and impacts on households in near real-time and how might this be achieved? What are the key limitations?
  • Are there non-monetary approaches to limiting inflation that policymakers should consider taking into account potential price distortions, distributional impacts and fiscal costs?
• Household Behaviour and Energy Demand:
  • As the consequences of, and responses to, the crisis evolve, how are households responding to rising costs, policy signals and different forms of financial support, including the risks of welfare-reducing responses such as underheating homes?
  • What measures could help households reduce energy use in response to rising prices, and how effective might they be?
• Energy Markets, Supply Chains and Support for Business:
  • Which supply chains and sectors of the UK economy are most exposed, such as energy intensive industry and agriculture, and what are the risks of their contraction, relocation or structural change?
  • How can and should support be effectively targeted at businesses disproportionately affected by cost shocks? What approach might best navigate the trade-offs between advancing net zero objectives, supporting comparative advantage and mitigating the risks of moral hazard
  • How do firms’ energy price hedging strategies determine their resilience and affect consumers, and how does this vary by sectors and firm size?
• Social Consequences:
  • What are the impacts of the crisis and associated cost of living pressures on communities, including on community cohesion, and what policy responses are needed?
  • What additional pressures are the crisis and associated cost of living pressures placing on public services, and how should they be addressed?
• Resilience, Preparedness and Policy Trade-offs:
  • What are the lessons for improving resilience to future inflationary and energy shocks, including the extent to which crises entrench problems or might drive structural change?
    
    What are the short- and long-term costs and benefits of policy intervention, including impacts on public finances (e.g. government debt), and how should these trade-offs shape decisions about whether and how to intervene?

Project outputs should be timely, accessible and directly usable by policymakers, including:

• Concise policy briefs and recommendations.
• Clear analysis of direct, indirect, intentional and unintentional impacts, trade-offs, and costs.
• Where relevant, data tools or monitoring approaches.